Mike Trout is #winning. Your card collection is not.

Today it was confirmed that Mike Trout and the Angels are finalizing the details on the most lucrative contract in baseball history.

Mike Trout will be receiving a 12 year extension worth $430 Million dollars. Oh! My! God! Becky! Look at that contract.

To put this in context, he is receiving over 30% more than Bryce Harpers massive deal with the Phillies, and has surpassed Zack Grienke’s previous record average of $34.4 million with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Things are looking goooooood for Mike Trout, but should you start panicking?

Time to sell?

While I do not think it is time to dump your Trouts, I DO think it is time to temper both short and long term expectations.

Mike Trout’s cards have been on a tear lately. Much of the recent rise of his rookie cards has come from speculation. As 2020 approached, many believed he would find himself on a loaded Phillies roster… or even better…. in pinstripes.

I personally predicted 2 World Series Champtionship’s in Trout’s near future (both by 2025). I also saw him picking up a few more MVP’s in those seasons further entrenching himself as the greatest player any of us has ever had the chance to witness in our lifetime.

Imagine Trout sandwiched between Harper and Hoskins?

How about between Judge and Stanton?

UGH!!!!!

This has shattered the dreams of many speculative investors (including myself).

The Angels have wayyyy too many holes on that team, and after paying Trout (and soon Ohtani), absolutely no money left to do anything about it.

As it sits now, they are projected to finish 3rd in their division, with 82 wins (15 behind Houston, and personally a generous prediction).

Look at this lineup.

Projected 2019 Lineup

Player POS AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG OPS BB K
1 Kole Calhoun  OF 517 74 18 63 5 0.234 0.313 0.393 0.706 58 125
2 Mike Trout  OF 534 118 41 93 28 0.313 0.451 0.614 1.065 130 134
3 Justin Upton   OF 541 85 31 92 10 0.259 0.342 0.486 0.828 64 176
4 Justin Bour  1B 351 44 19 60 1 0.254 0.352 0.459 0.811 54 95
5 Albert Pujols  DH 386 40 16 63 2 0.249 0.294 0.409 0.703 25 55
6 Andrelton Simmons  SS 565 69 11 69 13 0.287 0.333 0.412 0.745 38 51
7 Zack Cozart   3B 475 74 18 54 2 0.259 0.335 0.451 0.786 50 87
8 Jonathan Lucroy C 417 46 8 52 1 0.259 0.321 0.376 0.697 36 65
9 David Fletcher  2B 501 78 6 54 9 0.295 0.336 0.431 0.767 27 54

That lineup isn’t terrible, but that lineup is also the type of lineup they will be sporting for the foreseeable future.

A lineup like that can win a world series. It’s been done before.

Teams that have done it however, have had very very strong pitching staffs.

Does this pitching staff look strong?

Projected 2019 Starters

Player POS IP W L ERA WHIP K BB SwStrike Fastball
1 Matt Harvey  SP 152 6 11 4.68 1.41 124 45 9.6% 94.0 mph
2 Andrew Heaney   SP 177 10 10 4.22 1.23 180 45 11.8% 92.0 mph
3 Tyler Skaggs   SP 122 8 6 3.76 1.37 122 41 11.0% 91.4 mph
4 Jaime Barria  SP 129 7 8 4.40 1.27 98 47 10.4% 91.2 mph
5 Trevor Cahill  SP 101 6 5 4.01 1.32 96 44 11.7% 91.8 mph

Forget about strong… that staff doesn’t even look decent.

Our only chance…

The only chance we have as collectors and investors, is that LA realizes they made a mistake.

The Marlins realized that Stanton wasn’t a smart move long term, and traded him to the Yankees.

We need something similar to happen here with Trout.

There is NO WAY the Angels win a World Series in the final 12 years of Trouts contract as the team sits. NO FREAKING WAY. HECK! They may not even make the playoffs! Maybe if Houston was still in the NL, (but they aren’t), or Oakland didn’t always finds a way to stick around, or Seattle wasn’t getting younger and better (see dumping Cano).

HOLD AND PRAY

Trout is still the top name in baseball #fact. However as an investor I need to try to look further into the future. What if 6 years from now, the Angels have not made the playoffs? Are people going to start questioning Trout? Even worse, what if he does make a playoff appearance, and they get washed up by a better team? Is Trouts stock going to take a hit as he’s not a “winner”?

What if 12 years pass and he still has not won a World Series? Is he going to fall under the category of the best to never win? Will be be baseballs Karl Malone?

Tie this in with the fact that an injury can strike anyone at any moment, and I just don’t think the growth potential is here for Trout the same way it was yesterday.

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